This article attempts to analyze a post Isayas’s Eritrea and about the revenge policy of Isayas against both Ethiopians and Eritrean Highlanders.
Introduction
In the last 20 years nothing good is heard of the country except frustrating and saddening stories which daily cover the headlines of world Medias.
A hero for some and a pariah and a traitor for others, Eritrean president Isayas Afworqi has almost completely isolated the tiny red sea state from the globalized world and ruled it with iron and fist since independence in 1991. Eritrea graduated as rogue state is listed in the book of diminishing states. It has been repeatedly said and analyzed that the country is ruled by fear not by rule of law since there is no constitution, no political and no economic policy which directs the path of the state. Hence, there is no actual government but the liberation front still governing it. Scholars, rightly, argued that process of statehood of the country is not yet started and the practice of democracy is either denied or postponed indefinitely as well. The country is perceived as belligerent to the horn and beyond. Thus, its foreign policy spearheaded by the president personally is unpredictably to anyone next door countries.
Current political development inside EritreaThe indefinite forced conscription, the extra judiciary acts, poverty, torture, lack of freedom and the right to work are the driving factors for migration. As a result, Eritrea is the largest refugee producing country after the war torn Syria in the world. The UNHCR reports show that every month, 5000 Eritreans flee. This number shows that 60,000 Eritreans out of the approximately 6 million populations become refugee every year. This indicates that the country donated 25% of its population to the world refugee crisis so far.
The regime is losing its popular legitimacy (the only card it had to rule) very fast and is reaching to the point of no return. Hence, the only tactics which Isayas used to stay in power was that of popular legitimacy. Now, every Eritrean is accusing of infidelity and organizing to fight the regime at any cost. Threatened by development, Isayas has responded by extreme use of force to the extent executing genocide acts, banning private Medias, jailing top party and government officials, forcing youngsters to leave the country, jailing religious leaders and even expelling diplomats. Expectedly, the measures taken could not stop the growing pressure from its own people. Additionally, it has established more than 10,000 torturing and jailing cells which are said to have sheltered hundreds of thousand political prisoners. Any form of measures could not, however, stop the anger of the people. At times, Isayas employed Ethiopian opposition groups based on Eritrea to monitor the security situation and spying Eritreans. This did not bring any meaningful results though. Hence, Isayas continued employing foreign mercenaries to silence his own people.
The ‘No War No Peace Policy’ how did it go?
The ‘no war no peace policy’ that has existed between Ethiopia and Eritrea after the devastating war in 2000 onwards has truly weakened the sate of Eritrea and partially Ethiopian north part. It could be said that the policy damaged more to Eritrea than Ethiopia. However, arguably enough, it did benefited Isayas personally to stay in power untouched. We should differentiate the people, state and Isayas Afworqi’s personal interest. Following the policy, the state becomes weak and fragile while the people of Eritrea become poor and hostage. They are pushed to flee at intimidating number. But, Isayas continued to rule the country at will, no matter what happened to his people and his country.
We should not be puzzled here. The aim of the policy was not to create fragile state and social crisis in Eritrea. To my best understanding, it was aimed at containing and toppling Isayas.
The Ethiopian Foreign Policy and the rhetoric of the Ethiopian leaders usually treat the Eritrean people as brothers and favor them positively even more than their own leader does. However contrary to this rhetoric, the no war no peace policy missed its target and went wrong. Isayas personally is happy of it and is living comfortably with it, no matter what. What was the ultimate goal of Isayas? Very clear! To stay in power at any cost and he did it, he won it. Who is suffering from the “no war no peace policy”? Surely, not Isayas! It is the Ethiopian northern part and the whole Eritreans rather.
The most horrifying thing is that Eritrea itself is sinking into the hands of Arab countries’ incursion. Who is to be disadvantaged if the State of Eritrea is dominated by the Arab storming? You may not say it is Isayas? Not at all! Isayas by now is above 75 years old and is done with power. He showed us practically that he did not come to power to save or create democratic, developed and sovereign Eritrea. He did come to simply sit in power and rule at will. He did it so.
Therefore, it is none of Isayas business whether Eritrea is drifting to the hands of extremists after him. Nor does he care if the “no peace no war” policy disadvantaged Eritrea or Ethiopia. He could calculate it that did the policy go against my power or not. Calculated from this, Isayas emerged victorious no matter what as far as his stay in power so long. What was to be considered as defeat for him was that if the Ethiopian leaders together with Eritrean forces intended to shorten his power.
The no peace and no war policy applied for the last 16 years much helped Isayas to stay in power and execute so many ugly acts against the Eritrea state, the people of Eritrea, Ethiopians and the horn at large. Isayas got plentiful time and confidence to train, finance and arm all forms of terrorists to sabotage Ethiopia which is a partial successful project. For example, Ethiopia is occupied in Somalia situation where Isayas projected rightly. He also attempted to bomb inside Ethiopia and able to divert the mind of Ethiopian leaders from focusing at domestic politics. Using the prolonged “no peace and no war” policy, Isayas played destructive role in Ethiopia. He organized and financed the Ethiopian toxic Diasporas owned Medias to daily create mistrust among Ethiopians. Isayas dreams to disintegrate Ethiopia and is on the way to do so. The future will hold the truth regarding who is wining against whom.
He kept the organization of OLF, ONLF, Gimbot 7, and so many Ethiopian outlawed groups alive inside Eritrea and helped them spread toxic and decisive propaganda which ultimately produced the last protests and put the continuity of the state at crossroad.
If Ethiopia had coordinated and supported the helpless and frustrated Eritrean people and advanced or used any means possible to avoid Isayas, the policy could have been acknowledged as successful and historical in both peoples. Eritrea would have a new responsible leader by now and the two brotherly people could have lived peacefully. However, Isayas stayed happily and the two people go migration and risked their lives on the course. Hunger and uncertainty prevailed in both peoples. Hence, what is the point of prolonging the “peace no war policy” when measured from both peoples’ benefit? I do not see anything positive of it personally.
What kind of Eritrea post Isayas would be?
Currently, Isayas is busy contracting Eritrea to Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Egypt is reportedly gained military bases in the islands of red sea, UAE owns Asab port for both military and logistics purposes, Saudi is also stationing in the coastal areas of Masawa ports. The Brotherhood and Wahabists are swimming deep inside Eritrea and busy doing their usual business. It should not be forgotten that the mice Qatar and Saudi are the leading countries in sponsoring and spreading Whabisim in the horn of Africa. Ignored by the west, Isayas turned his back to the oil rich gulf countries. The Arabs are allowed to teach Wahabisim, financing and training Eritrean Muslims in the coastal areas. In exchange, Isayas gets financial and military support. Good business to him! The vast border with Sudan is also left unchecked giving opportunities for Sudanese, Qataris, and Saudis wahabists to conduct anything they want.
What kind of Eritrea will be after Isayas so? It is unpredictable but the current Eritrea will either be possibly fall apart or it will be totally at the hands of Arab direct influence. More ironically, the Christian highlanders are becoming too divided following the conflict-ridden policy of Isayas. The Seraye, Akloguzai and Hamassen are becoming hostile even in dealing against the common enemy-Isayas. The mistrust developed among them is beyond words and very dangerous. Additionally, it is these people fleeing the country at considerable rate. Contrary to this, the Muslims lowlands and coastal areas are becoming very integrated and armed with the help of the stated foreign Arab countries. Thus, it is simply to predict what kind of Eritrea will be post Isayas. Eritrea will be engulfed by civil war among the highlanders and Arab supported lowlanders. The Arabs have military bases inside Eritrea and it is very predictable who win the civil war. It is the jihadists who can win with military presence of the Arabs. Eritrea, rightly, will be Arab forces dominated state which closes the chapter of integration policy or any aspirations towards to it.
Let’s say that if Eritrea is dominated by wahabists or jihadists supported by Egypt, Saudi and Qatar, what will the Ethiopian security issue look like? Ethiopia will be trapped by sworn enemies. The wahabisim project will not stop there. They will work hard to export directly to Ethiopia. Confrontation will be the game of the day. Egypt will jump and take advantage of it. The rest will be history.
Conclusions
The “no peace no war” policy gave Isayas the advantaged to project successful tactics to bleed Ethiopia. One of which is: he could maintain forces inside Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea. These forces are still engaging Ethiopian in all war fronts. Be it hybrid war; color revolution and direct war, Ethiopia tastes the bitter fruit the policy it used to claim weakened Isayas. Isayas again has invented to revenge Ethiopia: he gave military and other bases to the stated counties intentionally to make Ethiopia suffered from in the future.
Failed Eritrea, South Sudan and Somalia are all headache to Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian leaders should pay attention to scholars on the subject and design sound policies to predict and prevent Eritrea from falling into sworn- in Enemies.
However, leaving Eritrea to the hands of enemies will cost us much later. What should be done now? Gather scholars and consult with them. They have curing medicines for this, I assure you!
The author is a scholar of International Relations: he can be reached at zazeha@gmail.com
