By the Strathink Editorial Team
Eritrean websites have been reporting on the serious health problems facing Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki. These are not mere rumors. Our sources confirm that President Afewerki is terminally ill and his demise is likely imminent. We say this as a fact and not the kind of gossip that tends to overwhelm discourse about this small nation in the Horn of Africa. This is real and has enormous consequences for not only Eritrea but also Eritrea’s neighbors.
What will happen when the Eritrean President dies? Unfortunately, the President governed his country single-handedly without building the institutions needed to ensure the day-to-day business of government—the delivery of public goods and services—will continue after the President is no longer calling the shots. Indeed, we know little about who is currently calling the shots while the Eritrean President struggles with a terminal illness. At the moment, the state appears to be rudderless and this is bad news for everyone.
In Eritrea, the number of people serving in the military is staggering and there are weapons everywhere. This should concern the international community given the geopolitical significance of Eritrea at the mouth of the Red Sea . What will happen if Eritrea collapses into chaos with the almost certain and very soon demise of the President? What will happen to the region when overwhelmed by a lawless state populated by hundreds of thousands of trained, well-armed military and former military with no one in full command.
We only have to think about Yemen, Somalia and South Sudan to understand the dire consequences of a collapsed Eritrea in an already fragile and volatile region. The potentially dangerous security situation evolving just across Yemen threatening the busiest shipping lane in the world should be at the top of our global agenda.
Perhaps it is time now to seriously address the need for a viable transformation strategy for Eritrea in the likely event the President soon dies. The international community should be ready to provide material and technical support to Eritrean groups positioned to step in to fill the void left by Eritrea’s President.
This is a wake up to the international community. A collapsed Eritrean state with hundreds of thousands of armed soldiers and ex-soldiers vying for the scarce resources of the depressed Eritrean economy will have irreparable regional implications. We can’t afford this. Now is the time to play a positive role in preventing the worst-case scenario from becoming a reality.
